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Classifier HHFs about to get real


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#21 ron169

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 04:55 PM

Logic tells me that even those guys can't nail the exact same hit factor every single time on demand. Those guys are good, but they're not that good. I've shot with most of them and seen them make mistakes.



Not saying they can, but take Dave, Ben, and Gutt, each three runs, take average of best 3 runs make new HHF.

That being said, good luck getting the best of the best together for a week of shooting classifiers and it not costing a metric ton.

Or how about we have a classifier national match, 40 stages of classifiers.
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#22 Ben

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 04:59 PM


Or how about we have a classifier national match, 40 stages of classifiers.

​Go fuck yourself :D 


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#23 Mike Foley

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:01 PM

What I was saying is that, the "truest scale" is not to take 10 best scores of a given classifier across 10 years across all shooters. I suspect those 10 best scores are all anomalies and won't be repeatable. Not sure how the system has been like this all along, since El Prez has had HHF 10 for Production for years. If you collect the best 10 scores of El Prez for Production, I bet $20 the HHF will be around 13.

.

El prez has changed twice since I started shooting it in 2002. The issue is that very few classifiers have been reset since Dave Thomas was the Executive Director. We are behind the curve, we have a lot more data, and a lot more talent in the sport. It has always worked this way. There is a guy at HQ who has been the data guru for 25 years, and I met with him a lot before we made the match classifier and match bump changes, and he's been asking for the reset for some time. I'm going to manually look at each one, throwing out bad data. One I saw had all the top GMs at 11 or so HF, and some dude at like 15, which was mathematically impossible given the points and even the best possible draws and reloads. That one gets tossed, the next ten are averaged for the HHF, and the scale says 95% is GM.
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#24 ron169

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:01 PM

​Go fuck yourself :D



Did that earlier, but thanks for the suggestion... Plus be mad at mcfuckpants, he's the one that just said you couldn't hundo on demand.

#25 Mike Foley

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:02 PM

​Go fuck yourself :D


So you are saying that you are out for the classifier nationals? Me too.

#26 aceinyerface

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:03 PM

As the classifiers are excellent practice exercises, I'd like to see the points and speed of the HHF for each

This will give a gold standard to measure against and motivation to improve.

Not that I expect that to really happen, but a man can dream.

#27 Mike Foley

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:05 PM

As the classifiers are excellent practice exercises, I'd like to see the points and speed of the HHF for each

This will give a gold standard to measure against and motivation to improve.

Not that I expect that to really happen, but a man can dream.


Easy there dream weaver.
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#28 MilkMyDuds

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:10 PM

El prez has changed twice since I started shooting it in 2002. The issue is that very few classifiers have been reset since Dave Thomas was the Executive Director. We are behind the curve, we have a lot more data, and a lot more talent in the sport. It has always worked this way. There is a guy at HQ who has been the data guru for 25 years, and I met with him a lot before we made the match classifier and match bump changes, and he's been asking for the reset for some time. I'm going to manually look at each one, throwing out bad data. One I saw had all the top GMs at 11 or so HF, and some dude at like 15, which was mathematically impossible given the points and even the best possible draws and reloads. That one gets tossed, the next ten are averaged for the HHF, and the scale says 95% is GM.

 

Just thinking out loud - if the classification system is intended to place people on a percentile, why not make a normalized distribution curve for each of the classifier based on the 2-year (or maybe 5-year sliding window time frame) data, and assign a percentile for that score?

 

That seems to be much more reasonable and less prone to anomolies than say, picking "10 best scores" and using that as the scale, because statistically the bigger the sample size the less impact anomolies can have on the scale.



#29 NickBlasta

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:11 PM

Would Classifier National Champion be the ultimate grandbagging title?


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#30 waktasz

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:51 PM

Does this mean the "HHF" for all the fixed time classifiers is going to change from all the points for every division to something that is actually possible?


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#31 Mike Foley

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:54 PM

Good question. I'm going to review every classifier in every division. I'll know more when I get into the numbers.
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#32 Part Of Me

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:57 PM

Yeah, I'd love to see anybody who can shoot Baseball Standards at 100% with a Production gun .... even with 10 reshoots


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#33 Peally

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 05:59 PM

Does this mean the "HHF" for all the fixed time classifiers is going to change from all the points for every division to something that is actually possible?


Noob

#34 GooldMember

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 06:07 PM

Would Classifier National Champion be the ultimate grandbagging title?

I accept the challenge to protect my self-proclaimed title of King of the Paper GMs!
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#35 Just Some Random Hoser

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 06:13 PM

You say that like it's a bad thing. Imagine a world where GM was a de facto impressive title. A world where pre 2017 GMs have an asterisk next to their names.

Sounds like a net positive to me.


I think it should be like that.

#36 waktasz

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 06:33 PM

In chess, about .85% of rated players make it to GM. (according to my recent googling)

 

In USPSA, how many GMs are there? Say there's about 400? Assuming around 50,000 classified shooters, that equals.8%.  I don't know how many GMs there are or how many rated shooters there are, but those numbers seem about right.  

 

Even in chess there are GMs and there are so called Super GMs.  There are many GMs that have no chance to win a national or world title, but they are still GMs.


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#37 Vagetarian

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 07:06 PM

If there's an all classifier nationals can you pay $3 and reshoot them all until you make GM?
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#38 Just Some Random Hoser

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 07:28 PM

​Go fuck yourself :D


Hondo Project all over again....except this time it would be for real.

#39 snark

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 07:32 PM

I laugh every time somebody says "this classifier is all shot out" because they believe the bit about resetting the HHFs that HQ has been selling since the inception of the classification system, yet nearly never doing.

Mike-- I suggest graphing the scores per-classifier and see what the distribution looks like before arbitrarily taking some number as the 100%. There's enough data the distribution will be clear rapidly and I've seen enough shenanigans over the years where the timer misses a shot, or the classifier was setup wrong or the scorekeeper -2-ed a friend and so on that unless you know the people and clubs involved, look like legit results. Find an unemployed Statistics major (there must be tons), hand them Excel and the data file and tell them to have at it.
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#40 Just Some Random Hoser

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Posted 06 July 2017 - 07:33 PM

Yeah, I'd love to see anybody who can shoot Baseball Standards at 100% with a Production gun .... even with 10 reshoots


Did you just challenge Twinkie?
Betcha she could.....just saying.




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